Such Dramatic Changes?

I stumbled upon Steve Rosenbaum's article about "5 Trends that Will Change Media in '09." Whilst it is all very well and good to gaze into our crystal ball, we should do so be carefully looking back at what has passed. In particular, the growth of e-books.

Other than the legacy of the physical experience (the paper of the New York Times, the Album Covers of old records, the binding of books) the reality is that digital delivery is better for the planet, and has both the long-tail efficiencies and creative freedom that gives digital creators the ability to lower costs (and therefore price). MIddlemen who don't add value should beware, Digital Goods delivery doesn't require both a wholesale and a retail seller.

I know Rosenbaum is talking about much more than e-books here - and I agree with him that providing digital content provides much more freedom, freedoms offered by sites such as soundclick - this may not be the case for things such as books. I remember that one of the things often touted by eBook advocates is that they will reduce the costs for the end user. The reality is that the production costs of books are actually very low; the largest proportion of the money you pay for a book goes into the publisher's coffers. This solution is simple you say: just get rid of the publisher. However, are we to rely on information that does not have at least some verifiability?

Also, at present, there is very little in the way of gadgets to read eBooks on. Sure, Amazon has Kindle but apart from that there is very little out there that can even come close the to superiority of paper. One reason the codex design has persisted for so long is that it is actually of incredibly superior design. Until an eBook reader can come close to the brilliant design of a pBook I don't think there will be such an explosion of eBooks. After all, we are still waiting...